Aleksa Camur (-120) 6 units

This is our biggest play of the night. We are very high on Camur. He’s young, athletic, can take a punch, and has the physical gifts to be successful at this level. Add in that he’s a training partner of Stipe Miocic, then you know he’s been through the ringer in the gym and should be prepared for his debut on Saturday night. We also are pretty down on Justin Ledet, Camur’s opponent. He hasn’t looked good in his last two fights since he dropped down to 205, and his raw talent doesn’t even come close to stacking up against Camur’s.

Yes, this is Camur’s debut, and we don’t love backing inexperienced fighters, but we see something special here in Camur. He’s got powerful kicks, heavy hands, and has movement well beyond his years in the cage. All of these attributes combined, and you have a solid fighter who has a much higher ceiling than his opponent, Justin Ledet. The UFC also has a tendency to match these up and coming prospects with beatable opponents, as they’d like to see them win, and build them up. This is the exact scenario that we have here with Camur. This is a very good matchup for Camur. Ledet has experience and has won at this level, so it will be a solid 1st UFC win for Camur. But on the other hand, Ledet is very beatable, and he’ll most likely won’t to stand and bang with Camur, opening up the door to an impressive debut win for the Ohio native.

The stars are aligning on this one, and we’re getting this line at a very reasonable -120. Our projections have Camur closer to -160, but his lack of experience is pulling this line down. We’ll take the added perception value and place a solid 6 unit wager on Camur to win this fight.

Ode Osbourne (-125) 3 units

Yup, Osbourne is the 2nd debuting fighter that we are backing on this UFC card. It really is a very similar situation to the matchup we outlined above (Camur/Ledet). Osbourne is a young, athletic fighter who has the physical gifts to make some waves in the UFC, and he’s facing a well traveled veteran who is capable, but also very beatable. Brian Kelleher does not handle athletic fighters well (see Montell Jackson fight), and this is exactly what he is getting here with Ode Osbourne.

Osbourne’s diverse striking game, well-rounded skillset, and shear power will be too much for Kelliher to handle, and he will most likely be finished inside the distance, hence the prop bet that we’ve outlined below. We grabbed this line at -125 earlier in the week, and it now sits at -145 on Thursday morning, so hop on this line ASAP.

The UFC would love to build Osbourne up, just like Camur, so this fits that theory nicely. Once you factor in Osbourne’s superior physical talents, then you have the makeup for an impressive dominating debut with the organization. We love the -125 line we got here, and we really like Osbourne to be able to finish Kelliher inside the distance at +151! Grab ‘em both!

JJ Aldrich (-105) 2.5 units

We have an average sized play here on JJ Aldrich. This one is pretty simple for us. Aldrich is the better boxer, has faced much tougher competition than Mazo, is a more powerful striking game, and will have the advantage in the clinch against the cage as well. Mazo just doesn’t have the power to significantly effect Aldrich and stop her from moving forward. Aldrich has shown that she has a technically sound boxing game that is centered around both power and speed. Mazo’s defensive boxing is not very good at all, as she stand upright with her chin exposed. This is a recipe for a dominating performance on the feet for Aldrich. The one X factor is Mazo’s kicking game, which is pretty good. Aldrich will need to be able to absorb some body kicks in order to enter the pocket and box Mazo up. She’ll also need to be aware of the head-kick. We don’t think Mazo delivers enough power in her kicks to have a big impact on Aldrich. She’ll walk through them, connect with heavy punches, and win by a pretty wide margin on the judges’ scorecards.

We really like the pick ‘em line that we are getting here with Aldrich. We have here closer to a -150 favorite, so we are getting some value, and we are pretty confident that she’ll win this fight.

UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cerrone

Las Vegas, Nevada

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-

-

BETS

4

5

-0.05

0%

PICKS

UNITS +/-

W

L

ROI %

EVENT RESULTS

PREMIUM BET Results

STRAIGHT BETS

W

L

UNITS +/-

1

2

-0.3

PROP BETS

W

L

UNITS +/-

2

2

-0.64

PARLAYS

W

L

UNITS +/-

1

1

0.89

DraftKings Targeted fighters