Think Before You Fight

Jone Jones makes his comeback on Saturday night in Houston, Texas as he takes on surging undefeated light heavyweight Dominic Reyes. We've found some serious value on the card, both in straight bets and a few prop bets. We lost a play in Antonio Arroyo, but we were able to hop on his 24 hour replacement, James Krause, at the opening odds of -130, and they have steadily climbed to -170 4-5 hours later. Consider that a 2nd free bet for this card. The one we were planning on releasing is a solid play on Andre Ewell, and we outline below why we like him in this fight.

Andre Ewell (-115) 2.5 units

Andre Ewell (15-6, 2-2) claimed the CES Bantamweight title with a d’arce finish of Dinis Paiva before besting Renan Barao by split decision in his Octagon debut. Since that impressive debut victory he has lost two of three, falling to elite prospect Nathaniel Wood and The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Latin America” veteran Marlon Vera, who is a legit fighter in his own right. Ewell has lost against some top competition, and this is something to keep in mind, as Martinez has fought nowhere near the level of competition that Ewell has. 

Ewell is a lanky striker who has very quick hands, better than average power, and a questionable wrestling game. He owns seven professional wins via knockout and another four by submission. Ewell almost always has the reach advantage in his fights, and this one is no different, as he'll possess a 5 inch reach advantage over fellow American, Jonathan Martinez. 

Ewell has a quick straight left that is his best weapon. He does a great job countering with his left as well. He's most effective at range; darting in and out, and landing through speed and athleticism. He's looked super impressive in some of his fights. Against Dos Santos he looked like he had elite level striking skills, battering the Brazilian over the course of 3 rounds. Then there's been other fights when grappling has come in to play where he has looked overwhelmed and in over his head. 

Through our tape study we've noticed that if Ewell can dictate the pace and spacing that the fight takes place, then he is very effective on the feet. When he has an opponent who moves forward and pressures him, he has a very difficult time implementing his striking game. Ewell's big weakness is his takedown defense and his ground game on his back. His grappling has definitely improved, but it's still a weakness as it evolves.  

Jonathan "Dragon" Martinez makes his 4th trip to the Octagon, and is looking to improve his record to 3-1. Martinez is a tough, gritty fighter who's proven to have a solid chin, and a very sound striking game. Martinez returned from a year away to face Andre Soukhamthath on short notice in Moncton, showing some impressive durability but ultimately dropping a decision. A decision over Wuliji Buren followed, after which he scored a bonus-winning upset knee knockout of Pingyuan Liu in Sacramento.

Martinez has a very calm, patient striking game that is extremely efficient. Martinez is susceptible to getting swarmed and overwhelmed in chaos, turtling up against the cage, praying he survives the onslaught. Martinez has never been finished though, so he knows how to survive. He's got a solid grappling game, and has proven to be an effective scrambler as well. He's not a huge submission threat, but he will threaten when in position. His best traits are his cardio and his heart. 

This fight comes down to the pressure that Martinez is able to apply. If he can't back Ewell up and force him into a chaotic affair, then there is little chance that he can out strike Ewell. Martinez has the strong grappling game, but I don't believe he'll be able to get Ewell to the ground. Ewell's takedown defense has consistently improved throughout his time in the UFC. He's a very good athlete who learns and adapts well, so I'd expect to see his wrestling game improved even more since the last time we saw him against Chito Vera. 

Martinez's slow, laid back striking style plays right into the hands of Ewell, allowing him to fire at will from range, and counter Martinez easily as he finds it difficult to get within proper range to effectively damage Ewell. Andre will land his piston-like straight left with regularity, and possibly dropping Martinez with it. This could be a firefight, and so long as Ewell can stay upright, this is his fight to win. 

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The 166th version of UFC Fight Night comes rolling onto tobacco road with a 12 fight card the should deliver some under the radar exciting fights. After all of the hype surrounding UFC 246 it's only natural to feel like this card is the red-headed step child, but below the surface, this card isn't all that bad.

From a betting perspective we've found that this card has presented us with some serious value on some dog plays. Out of the 7 straight & prop bets that we are recommending, 4 of them have odds of +200 or higher! It should be a fun night, and could turn out to be HUGE night if things go the way we expect them to.

All of our premium content is posted; Bet Breakdowns, DraftKings Targets, and in-depth Fight Breakdowns are all up on the site, so make sure you swing by and give it a ride!

Enough of the fluffing. Let's get on to the free bet for UFC Fight Night 166: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos.


Montel Jackson/Felipe Colares <2.5 Rounds (+100) 3.5 units

Montel Jackson comes in as the biggest favorite on the card (-670). I'm not sure if this is more due to Jackson's talents, Colares' skill level, or a combination of the two. Regardless, Jackson has a very favorable matchup here. Jackson is a rangy, athletic wrestler who's learning how to strike. 6 of his 8 wins have come before the final bell, and he's coming off of two impressive performances under the UFC banner after he opened his promotional career with a decision loss to Ricky Simon.

Colares' clear path to victory in this one is to get this fight to the mat in order to neutralize Jackson's striking advantage, but that is much easier said than done. Colares isn't much of a wrestler, and he usually secures his takedowns via the clinch. The problem with this approach is that Jackson is the better wrestler, is quicker, stronger, and more athletic. Jackson should be able to dictate where this fight takes place, and he'd prefer to keep this at range and out-strike the Brazilian from the outside.

Once Colares' realizes that his gameplan is junk, and that he's outclassed by Jackson in the striking department, he'll find himself looking for a way out. Jackson's athleticism, superior striking, and ability to keep the fight standing will allow him to open up his striking game, hunting for the kill, and eventually getting it within the first 2 rounds.

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And the wait is finally over! We had a 4 week break from UFC events over the holidays, but we're back in action with a stacked card that's headlined by the Notorious One, Conor McGregor, as he takes on Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone, which should be a banger of a fight!

We couldn't wait to get back to work on this card, as we've been on an absolute tear over the past 6 events, amassing a +40 unit profit! This is a hard earned +40 units, as we've been grinding away, putting in 30+ hours of handicapping for each card. It's a combination of tape study, stats analysis, and stylistic matchup analysis that allows us to put it all together and predict pretty accurately how a fight should unfold. If it ain't broke, don't fix it - and that's exactly what we are doing. You can see all of our results HERE

For UFC 246 we have 3 straight bets, 4 prop bets, and 2 parlays included in our recommended premium bets. We were also heavy on Chas Skelly before his fight with Grant Dawson got scrapped earlier in the week. We also have a very confident read on some solid plays for your DraftKings lineups, so if you are a DFS'er, make sure you don't miss that content.

All of our new membership packages are posted on our site, and you can also buy just our Bets or DK Targets without signing up for a membership plan if you feel more comfortable doing that. You just don't get access to our in-depth Fight Breakdowns, which is some of the best content we put out with super in-depth stats to accompany the actual breakdown. You can check out all of our membership plans HERE

Per usual, we'll be giving out one FREE BET for this card, and we've outlined it below. Hop on board the heater train, because we are very confident that we'll be pushing out streak to 7 events in a row, and hopefully approaching the 50 unit profit mark!


Ode Osbourne (-125) 3 Units

Osbourne is a young, athletic fighter who has the physical gifts to make some waves in the UFC, and he’s facing a well traveled veteran who is capable, but also very beatable. Brian Kelleher does not handle athletic fighters well (see Montell Jackson fight), and this is exactly what he is getting here with Ode Osbourne.

Osbourne’s diverse striking game, well-rounded skillset, and shear power will be too much for Kelliher to handle, and he will most likely be finished inside the distance, a prop bet that we like also. We grabbed this line at -125 earlier in the week, and it now sits at -145 on Friday, so hop on this line ASAP.

The UFC would love to build Osbourne up, so they are giving him a very winnable matchup here against Kelliher. Once you factor in Osbourne’s superior physical talents, then you have the makeup for an impressive dominating debut with the organization. We love the -125 line we got here, and we really like Osbourne to be able to finish Kelliher inside the distance at +151! Grab ‘em both!

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