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Think Before You Fight


What a nostalgic night for MMA last night in Japan! Seeing Fedor and Rampage walk down the ramp to the Bellator cage within Saitama Super Arena (the most infamous venue in MMA history) was pure bliss, and a true throwback to the golden era of MMA when Pride FC was the biggest show in town. It gave me goosebumps listening to the Pride lady scream the intros, the old Pride music blaring through the speakers, and two of the most popular fighters in our sports history squaring off in the cage one last time. It truly gave me a serious MMA boner, and a fight that I won't soon forget due to the nostalgia that it garnered.


Bellator 237 was the last event that we were going to be handicapping in 2019, and we wanted to deliver for our members (and the general public) like we have been the past few months. We had 3 prop bets and 2 parlays on tap, and when it was all said and done, we had finished in the black once again, netting a slight profit of 1.53 units. This was our 6th profitable event in a row dating back to November 16th (UFC FN 164), and during those 6 events we have netted an amazing +39.62 units for our members! I'll say it again; over the last month and a half we have put almost 40 units of profit into our members (and the general public's) pockets! That is an incredible 39% ROI in a month and a half!


We love profit, but we were hoping for more than 1.5 units of profit last night, and we almost had another MONSTER night if it wasn't for how the Wantanabe/Joanne fight ended. We had a 3 unit bet on this fight going to a decision, and we also had this fight within one of our parlays. Wantanabe and Joanne were heading for a decision, but Wantanabe was able to get backmount and deliver some ground 'N pound to cause the ref to step in and stop the fight with a mere 21 seconds remaining! 21 damn seconds! If this fight goes 21 more seconds and sees the final bell, we would have profited a total of 11.87 units! Yes, 21 damn seconds is the difference between us turning a 1.53 profit and us posting an awesome 11.87 unit profit! Oh well, that's the way the cookie crumbles, but we did feel very confident in this bet, and we were pretty damn close on calling it right. I guess we should have settled with the >2.5 rounds and not taken the fight to go to a full decision.


We ended up profiting 1.85 units when Lorenz Larkin beat Nakamura by decision, and another 2.12 units when the Fedor/Rampage fight ended within the 1st round and a half. We also went 1-1 on our parlay plays. You know about the aforementioned Wantanabe/Joanne bet being in one of our parlays, killing that one, but we did profit 2.56 units on our 5 leg parlay.


We're happy we finished in the black, but man would we have loved to deliver another 10 units of profit on top of the 1.5 that we already had posted. That would have brought us to an astonishing 50 units of profit over the past 6 events and month and a half. Show me someone else that has posted this type of profit over the last 6 events and we'll give you a free month premium membership starting with UFC 246.


We will be posting a 2019 wrap-up article in the next few days, but we are already balls-deep in handicapping the big UFC 246 card that is taking place in 4 weeks. We WILL get off to a profitable start in 2020 and keep this heater rolling along! We are also in the process of making some enhancements to our website, making it easier to navigate with more insight, info, and handicapped fights that will grow your wallet! Keep an eye out.


In the meantime, please reach out to us with any ideas that you'd like to see implement when it comes to the website, insights, and our handicapping in general. We love to hear from our members on how to improve our product. We put in more time and effort handicapping fights than anyone else out there, and we'll put our money where our mouths are when it comes to this claim. You can see that our hard work is paying off based on our recent results, and we are truly grateful for all of our members, followers, and haters. You all contribute to our success in one way or another, and we want nothing more than to continue to put money in your pockets in 2020, so please don't hesitate to reach out to us with any suggestions on how we can make our product better. Here's a a great new year, and a profitable 2020!


We may have a month off from UFC events, but we still have some MMA action on tap tonight, as a throwback match between Fedor and Rampage pops off from Sait’s a Super Arena in Japan. The UFC may be on a hiatus, but that doesn’t stop the MMAFightIQ team from finding betting value on the card.

In our last 5 events we are 5-0 and have delivered a 38 unit profit to the masses!

We opened up our premium content for free through the end of the year, and if you were lucky enough to tail us, you probably had a few extra gifts under the tree this Christmas.

We have one more card in 2020 before our content becomes accessible only to members. You can enter to win a premium membership for the 1st quarter of 2020 by simply signing up to be a general member of the site for free. We’ll be drawing two members names that will receive the quarterly premium membership starting with UFC 246.

Tonight we have 4 bets that we are on; 2 props and 2 parlays. The 6 fights are betable through select sportsbooks, but as you’ll notice, most of the betting lines are dog or pass situations, this the reason we aren’t on any straight bets and have focused on props and parlays for this event.

Here’s a quick snapshot of what bets we’re putting into play tonight:


1) Lorenz Larkin to win by Decision (-135) 2.5 units to win 1.85


Lorenz Larkin is a high-level striker who should have his way with Nakamura on the feet. Larkin has powerful kicks, quick hands, and has shown flashes of brilliance inside the cage. As lethal as his striking game is, his finishing abilities don‘t match. He’s willing to out strike his foes from the outside, battering his opponent, but never going in for the kill to finish the fight.


Nakamura is a solid mixed martial artist, but his striking game is nowhere near that if Larkin’s. Nakamura has 10 losses to his name, and 8 of those have come via decision. His last 5 losses have been by decision, and I don’t suspect that trend will end tonight. Nakamura is durable, and able to weather most storms. Combine Nakamura’s durability with Larkin’s less than stellar finishing abilities, and we have the makeup for a 3 round beating at the hands of Larkin, with the judges awarding a 30-27 decision win across the board.

2) Wantanabe/Joanne goes to Decision (-185) 3 units to win 1.62


We have two pretty low-level, big promotion, female fighters on our hands here. Both fighters are rather unproven, and we wouldn’t feel comfortable

backing either of these fighters straight up, as there really isn’t much tape on them, and their styles are still a mystery to many. One play we are very confident in is that this fight will go to a decision. Neither of these women have very good finishing abilities. Wantanabe brings an incredibly slow striking pace to this fight. She’s very cautious on the feet, and doesn’t commit to much in the way of risky striking exchanges, opting to pick her shots when the time is right. Joanne isn’t known as a finisher either. She’s got a solid striking game, but doesn’t possess knock out power that can end the fight with one punch. This one should play out with a lot of clinching against the cage, and a slow, cautious striking pace.

3) Fedor/Rampage <1.5 rnds (-130) 2.75 units to win 2.16


You can flip a coin on who will win this fight, although I am leaning towards Rampage being able to finish Fedor in the 1st. Mostly due to Rampage’s superior durability at this late stage in their careers. With Rampage coming in at more than 260 pounds for the first time in his career, we have no confidence in placing a bet on Rampage here, but we do like this fight to end rather quickly. Both have power. Both have weakened chins. Both have questionable cardio. All of this pushes us to have 2.75 units on this fight ending within the first round and a half.

PARLAYS


1) Page ITD + Yamaguchi ITD + Wantanabe/Joanne goes to Decision

2 units to win 3.72


2) Chandler + Page + Larkin + Yamaguchi + Fedor/Rampage <1.5 rnds

1 unit to win 2.56


Lets have some fun tonight and keep this heater rolling! Hopefully you’ve been able to turn a healthy profit by tailing us as of late. We put in dozens of hours of work for each fight card, and you can probably see that through our in-depth fight breakdowns, DraftKings Targets, and the healthy profit that we’ve turned over the last 2 months! Happy Holidays to all our members from the MMAFightIQ.com team!




Welp, we smashed it again. For the 5th event in a row we've turned a profit, and for the 4th event in a row, that profits has been 6 units or better! In those 5 events we are +38 units! Here's how those events breakdown:

  • UFC FN 164: +2.08 (9% ROI)

  • Bellator London: +6.47 (74% ROI)

  • UFC ESPN 7: +10.28 (47% ROI)

  • UFC 245: +7.38 (36% ROI)

  • UFC FN: +11.89 (59% ROI)

It's been a hell of a run, but we're not surprised with the success. We have a process that is an analytics approach combined with film study. We emphasize cardio and Fight IQ heavily, but we also put a significant amount of weight on the stylistic matchup inside the cage. We put in 30+ hours per week when it comes to our handicapping, so to see these impressive results recently, it really doesn't come as a surprise to us. The fruits of our labor taste great, and we hope you've been along for this ride as we've opened up our premium content to the masses over the course of this 5 event run. Unfortunately that time has come to an end, and premium memberships will be in place for the next event; UFC 246 (1/18/20).


We will be offering memberships per event, monthly, and quarterly. Packages will be posted in the coming weeks and available for purchase at least a week before UFC 246. We will also be including "Profit Insurance" on all 3 of the membership packages. This is how confident we are in our process and ability to turn a profit. If you purchase a single event membership and our betting plays do not turn a profit, then you'll be given access to our premium content for the next event. If you purchase our monthly or quarterly packages, and don't turn a profit at the end of those periods, then we'll give you access to our premium content for another month at the conclusion of those respective packages at no charge. More details to follow, but that's the nuts and bolts of it.


It's also important to mention that we are giving away two premium memberships for the entire 1st quarter of 2020! All you need to do is to signup to become a member of the site (no cost), and we'll be drawing to names at random one week before UFC 246. We'll announce the winners on our Twitter page, as well as sending them a direct email. You can sign up by clinking the link at the top righthand of our webpage.


Our betting skills also won us an entrance into #TheUltimateUFCTwitterComp that is being put on by @NedsAUS, an online sportsbook based in Australia. There were 9 entrants selected due to their MMA knowledge. Some former fighters, others legit handicappers, and a few who have a massive MMA Twitter following. We were the only entrant who won their way into the competition by out picking 30 other entrants on the UFC ESPN 7 card. We are now 2 events into the competition and currently sit in 2nd place. Although there is a big gap between us and #1, we intend to close this over the next few events and take home the inaugural crown! Following along through Neds Twitter page.


We have a nice little holiday break here, as we don't have another event for 4 weeks. We'll be back with the most in-depth betting and DraftKings analysis on the planet for UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cerrone. Enjoy your family. Enjoy the gifts. Enjoy the food. And hopefully you've enjoyed the money that we've put in your pocket over the last month and a half!



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