Think Before You Fight

As you probably know, has been on an absolute heater as of late, profiting 19 units over the course of the 3 prior cards heading into UFC 245. We had profited 2 units on UFC FN 164 (9% ROI), 6.7 units on Bellator London (74% ROI), and 10.3 units on UFC FN 165 (47% ROI). If you asked us if we were surprised by these results we would say no, as the fruits of our labor were showing through. We typically put in over 30 hours per week handicapping these events, so we expect to pinpoint value within each card, and this is exactly what we have done over the past month.

We kept the heater lit Saturday night, as we profited another 7.4 units, producing a 36% ROI. This pushed our profits over the past 4 cards to 26.4 units! Hopefully you've read our content, realized we knew what we were talking about, and tailed us during this period, as Christmas has come early for and our members. We've opened up our premium content at no charge to the masses during this timeframe, and we have one even left in 2019 where anyone can access our premium content. Once 2020 rolls around we will have updated membership opportunities to continue this run into 2020 and beyond! If you have any questions on any of these membership packages, please don't hesitate to reach out to us at: or shoot us a PM on Twitter (@MMAFightIQ3).

We were also privileged enough to earn the 10th and final spot in the Neds #UltimateUFCTwitterComp, facing 9 other highly regarded MMA 'cappers in a multi-event betting battle. After UFC 245 we sit in 4th place, and well-positioned to vie for the inaugural title. Feel free to follow along each event through Neds Twitter account (@NedsAUS).

Christmas came early for us MMA fans, as the much anticipated UFC 245 event finally was upon us Saturday night! A stacked card of prospects, vets, and champions filled the card, with the headline bout being the middleweight clash between 185 pound champ, Kamaru Usman, and the Trump-supporting, brash, Colby Covington. The card didn't disappoint! We had 7 KO/TKO's, incredibly no submission victories, and 6 decisions (1 split, 5 unanimous). Save for a somewhat lackluster Amanda Nunes victory, the championship fights were on point!

Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski put on an incredible show in a highly competitive bout, exchanging strikes for 25 minutes at the highest of levels. If you read our fight breakdowns, then you knew that we were high on Volkanovski and his stylistic matchup with the 145 pound champ. We outlined that in order for Volkanovski to win as a +165 underdog, that he'd need to spending time in Holloway's preferred rangy striking distance, and get inside of those strikes in order to disrupt the champ's rhythm, land power shots, and then exit beyond Holloway's preferred distance. The Aussie executed a flawless gameplan, implementing this approach that we laid out to a "T". It was a beautiful thing to see, and Volkanovski's cardio held up just long enough to not let Holloway gain any momentum. We were thrilled that our analysis and hard work paid off on this fight, and we were able to profit 3.3 units.

We ended up breaking even on our Straight bets (2-2), as we missed with a small bet on Ben Saunders, although this was strictly a value play and we didn't necessarily have a ton of confidence in Saunders winning, but we were getting a ton of value in his +285 betting line. We also missed on our biggest Straight bet of the night, as Kai Kara-France lost a decision to Brandon Moreno. We hit on the aforementioned Volkanovski, and also on Punahele Soriano for a few units at +100.

Our Prop bets did very well, netting us 5.26 units with the following wins:

  • Nunes/De Randamie >2.5 rnds (+100) 3.5 units to win 3.5 units

  • Teymur/Hooper <1.5 rnds (+145) 2.25 units to win 3.26 units

We ended up missing on our Faber/Yan >2.5 rnds (-105) play for 1.5 units, although this one did get close to the midpoint of the 3rd round, so we weren't too far off on this one.

From a parlay perspective we had a solid night, going 1-1 and netting a profit of 2.31 units. We lost on our hailmary, 4 leg, 1 unit parlay, but our very confident 2.75 unit play of Yan/Neal/Nunes (+121) hit and we walked away in the black on our 2 parlay recommendations.

All-in-all it was a very good night! Looking back, we wish we didn't underestimate Brandon Moreno so much in his match against Kara-France, but it is what it is. We also wish we would have pulled the trigger on a Geoff Neal lean that we were on the fence about, as he looked great in his fight against Mike Perry.

We had a profitable night in DraftKings as well, although we missed backing Amanda Nunes, who had 124 points, and we didn't have enough shares of Kamaru Usman as well, who also smashed. We did have Usman & Nunes in our list of Fighters to Target, but we didn't invest heavily enough in them. We also missed with Kara-France, as we had a healthy ownership level of him. 2 of our dogs didn't come through for us, as Saunders lost and only put of 6 points, and Covington also lost, but he did throw up a very respectable 71.5 points in a 5th round TKO loss.

Our DK recommendations of Neal, Yan, Hooper, and Volkanovski all played well within our lineups, and allowed us to turn a small profit. There's in are to DK and how to make money over the long haul, and we recommend playing 80% Cash & 50/50 games, and 20% GPP's. It only takes one big GPP to put you far into the Black, but this is easier said than done. Try to play more single entry, or limited entry GPP's, as it's difficult to compete with someone submitting 150 lineups in a single contest.

We are fully engaged in handicapping this weekend's event in Busan, which starts at 2 AM EST here in the US, with the main card popping off at 5 AM. We'll have our Fight Breakdowns, betting plays, and DK recommendations up throughout the week, so keep an eye, get your bookies ready, and tell your friends, because this is the last week of FREE Premium Content, and the HEATER will continue to close out 2019!

This recap is coming a day late due being out of town with the family on a mini-vacation. I was able to sneak away and watch the fights, but had to put down the phone and the laptop for the last few days to wear my husband & father hat.

Anyway, on to the recap of UFC Fight Night 165 and how us and our members fared this weekend. We had put in a TON of work on this card, as we did have a 3 week layoff between events. This was great, and our hard work paid off in a big way! We ended up profiting 10.28 units on the 8 bets that we recommended. We went 2-0-1on our straight bets, 3-0 on our prop bets, and 2-0 on our parlays! We don't come across double digit unit profit nights very often, so we are extremely pumped with this result! We hope you tailed our plays and were able to capitalize as well. In the last 3 events we are 3-0 on cards, and are up almost 19 units!! Let's just say we are hitting our stride as a team, and feel very confident with our analytical focused approach.

The card didn't start off great, as the only bet that lost for us was the Muradov/Smith going to decision. This fight actually almost paid for us, as Muradov finished Smith with about a minute to go in the fight. It looked like it was going to go to a decision, but Muradov landed a super clean right hook to the chin that sent Smith's mouthpiece flying about 10 feet away, and he crumpled to the mat out cold. A beautiful, textbook KO for Muradov, but unfortunately we lost 2.25 units on this one. I don't think our analysis was off, as Smith did a good job of taking Muradov's power punches for 95% of the fight, but ended up gassing and his defense suffered, causing his hands to drop and him going to sleep.

Our other prop bet on the card was a unique on, as we ended up placing 3 different 1 unit bets on Billy Quarantillo to win within a specific timeframe: by decision (+200), in the 3rd round (+850), and in the 2nd round (+450). With this approach our worst case scenario was losing 3 units, and that would happen if Kilburn ended up winning, which we didn't think was likely to happen at all, and if Quarantillo ended the fight in the 1st round. Quarantillo poured it on in the 1st, dominating Kilburn on the mat with superior grappling and awesome ground N pound, and he was very close to ending the fight, but as we believed, Kilburn's toughness would carry him through the 1st round, and that's exactly what happened. Quarantillo ended up dominating Kilburn in the 2nd round, winning by stoppage, and in turn our 1 unit bet to end in the 2nd round ended up paying us 4.5 units. Back out the 2 units we had on the other 2 plays, and we profited 2.5 units on this series of 3 bets.

We had straight bets on Song Yadong, who's fight concluded in a draw due to a dumb illegal knee that he threw in the 1st round. If he doesn't throw that knee, then we end up profiting an additional 1.5 units, plus another 5 units that we would have collected on our 2 parlays that were reduced due to this draw decision. Unfortunate, but part of the game. We also had our biggest bet of the card (5 units) on Rob Font, and this ended up paying for us, as he outboxed Ricky Simon while on his way to a unanimous decision victory and our members profiting 3.7 units on our 5 unit bet. We also had a play on Jair Rozenstruik in the main event, and this one was heading towards a L for us until Jair landed a hailmary right hook that sent Overeem crashing to the canvas, and our members profiting another 2.5 units!

We also had a 2 unit play on Calvillo/Rodriguez to go to a decision at -170, and that one also hit for us, netting us a 1.18 unit profit. Our two parlays also paid, but not at the level we were expecting due to the Yadong draw, but they were still profitable nonetheless. Below is a recap of all of our bets from UFC Fight Night 165:


  1. Rob Font (-135) 5 +3.7

  2. Jair Rozenstruik (+100) 2.5 +2.5

  3. Song Yadong (-200) 3 push

  4. Billy Quarantillo (3 plays) 3 +2.5

  5. Calvillo/Rodriguez to Decision (-170) 2 +1.18

  6. Muradov/Smith to Decision (-125) 2.25 -2.25

  7. Yadong/Quarantillo parlay 2.5 +.81

  8. Yadong/Quarantillo/Solecki/Muradov 1.5 +1.7

TOTAL +10.28

We don't rest, and have already started doing our analysis for the big UFC 245 card coming up this weekend. We'll be releasing our Fight Breakdowns throughout the week, and will have our premium bets and DraftKings targets up by Friday, so make sure you keep an eye out and check back regularly. I'll be Tweeting as our content gets posted throughout the week.

We hop you all have enjoyed our content so far, and have benefited of the 19 units that we've profited over the past 3 events! As a reminder, all premium content is free through the end of the year, so tell your friends, and let's make it rain this weekend!

Cheers, Johnny

We are less than 2 hours away from bedlam commencing at our nations capital. No I'm not talking about Donald Trump and his daily antics. I'm talking about UFC Fight Night 165, which is headlined by a heavyweight matchup that should provide us some serious fireworks.

We had a 3 week break between events, but we're back with a full slate of fights, and we have all of the analysis, fight breakdowns, premium betting plays, and DraftKings targets. We've busted our asses since the last card, making the website more user friendly, and putting in over 40 hours handicapping this card for you. We've done ALL of the leg work for you. Just simply sit back, read our pages upon pages of content, place your bets, and construct your lineups, because it's going to be a fun night with profit coming at us from all angles!

All of our content is up on the website, including our Wiki-Sheet analytics tool, which can be downloaded HERE. There's some seriously tough fights to 'cap in this card, but we've found 3 straight bets, 3 props, and 2 parlays that we really like a lot, so make sure you check them out.

We are on a roll; up 9 units over the last 2 events, and up over 16 units since September. Our hard work is paying off, and we hope that you enjoy the content at no cost until the end of the year!

We'll be posting on Twitter throughout the night with takes, angles, and observations, so make sure you follow us and join in on the conversation. It should be a Red Panty night for us, and we hope you can hop on the profit train with us!

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