Think Before You Fight

In celebration of the recent site relaunch, and a few of our sponsors stepping up in a big way, we are rolling out a promotion that is making all of our premium content free of cost until 2020!

All you need to do is sign up to be a member of the site, and you'll instantly get access to our premium content that breaks down every fight on each card in detail, looking for value from betting and DraftKings perspectives. Head to the homepage and click on the "Sign up" button in the upper right corner.

You can then access our fight previews by clicking HERE!

We've posted half of the fight previews so far, and will be adding the rest by midday on Friday. We'll also be releasing our betting leans and DraftKings Targets by midday tomorrow as well, so be sure to check back for updates throughout the rest of the week and all day on Saturday. So go check out the members area, dig into our fight previews, and look for our Wiki-Sheet to be available Thursday night, our betting leans and DraftKings Targets on Friday, and updates on all of these up until fight time Saturday night!

Cheers & Enjoy!

Zabit & Kattar engage in one of the most technical striking battles you'll ever witness.

After the first few hours of prelim fights had concluded we were in a very good spot with our leans & DK recommendations, as we had hit on a dog in Davey Grant, and a pick 'em in Karl Roberson, and were up 7 units. We've been around this game long enough not to count your chickens before they hatch, and Saturday was a perfect example of putting that mantra into practice. We had another confident dog that we were on, and 2 favorites at -140 and -220, so you'd think we'd be sitting pretty at the end of the night, but when those 3 fighters all shit the bed, we were left sitting with a loss on the night. It happens....., but we were able to reflect on our handicapping, and find some areas that we missed or didn't account for appropriately. We go into detail on the UFC Moscow card, how are leans played out in the cage, and what we took away from the event to help us improve moving forward. You need to have a short memory in 'capping MMA, because there is always another event right around the corner, and we are already well into peeling back the onion of all of the fighters on the UFC Sau Paulo card.

We've introduced a new format once an event is concluded, making all event info (Wiki-Sheet, Fight Breakdown, Bets, DK, etc...) available for download on the specific event page, as well as going into a detailed breakdown of how the night played out for us and our leans. You can check out all of this over at the event link highlighted below.

UFC Fight Night 163: Moscow

We are less than an hour away from #UFCMoscow, and it's a card that many casual fans found obscure from a betting/DK perspective. If you put in the prep work, then you should be more comfortable with how these fights will play out than you should have going into UFC 244 last weekend. Russian's litter the card, and a lot of them have a very similar style of fighting, just on different levels. There fighting styles make it more predictable as to how the fights should unfold, but this is MMA, and anything can happen with 4 oz gloves.

With that being said, we have a few heavy leans today (2 4 unit plays), and are on a few underdogs as well. From a DK perspective, our targeted fighter pool isn't as deep as we usually see, which means fewer lineups that we'll invest in. The dogs we like allow us to get pretty flexible with our lineup construction, which is nice, but one or two strikes could change all that in a heart beat.

One prop bet that we like is Volkov/Hardy over 1.5 rounds. Here's why: Volkov isn't a power puncher. Yes, he can hit hard, but he is more about volume, cardio, and pit-shotting you from the outside, and I suspect this will be even more pronounced today when he is locked in the cage with Greg Hardy, a man who doesn't have a big skill set, with his best weapon being his heavy handed KO punch. Volkov has been around the game long enough to know not to engage in the pocket with Hardy, so he'll look to keep this fight at a distance that makes it very difficult for Hardy to land that one KO punch. This will make for an unappealing fight from a fans perspective, but its the best Fight IQ that he can implement in this fight.

Hardy on the other hand has a plethora of 1st round stoppages in his early career, but if you saw his last fight you'd notice that he rolled out a much different fighting style than what we've seen from him in his previous fights. He was patient, disciplined, and picked his aggressive shots very careful. This could be the evolution of Greg Hardy, and it wouldn't surprise me as he is training with a very intelligent team and coaching staff at American Top Team. I suspect that we'll see a similar style from him today against Volkov, and when you combine these two fighting styles, it makes for a somewhat boring, MMA chess match that goes to a decision, or for us, at least goes past 2:30 of round 2.

The >1,5 round line is holding at -110, but it started at -130. Hop on it now, as it may get over +100 by fight time. Good luck, and may the MMA Betting Gods be on our side!

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