Bellator 237: Premium Bets


We may have a month off from UFC events, but we still have some MMA action on tap tonight, as a throwback match between Fedor and Rampage pops off from Sait’s a Super Arena in Japan. The UFC may be on a hiatus, but that doesn’t stop the MMAFightIQ team from finding betting value on the card.

In our last 5 events we are 5-0 and have delivered a 38 unit profit to the masses!

We opened up our premium content for free through the end of the year, and if you were lucky enough to tail us, you probably had a few extra gifts under the tree this Christmas.

We have one more card in 2020 before our content becomes accessible only to members. You can enter to win a premium membership for the 1st quarter of 2020 by simply signing up to be a general member of the site for free. We’ll be drawing two members names that will receive the quarterly premium membership starting with UFC 246.

Tonight we have 4 bets that we are on; 2 props and 2 parlays. The 6 fights are betable through select sportsbooks, but as you’ll notice, most of the betting lines are dog or pass situations, this the reason we aren’t on any straight bets and have focused on props and parlays for this event.

Here’s a quick snapshot of what bets we’re putting into play tonight:


1) Lorenz Larkin to win by Decision (-135) 2.5 units to win 1.85


Lorenz Larkin is a high-level striker who should have his way with Nakamura on the feet. Larkin has powerful kicks, quick hands, and has shown flashes of brilliance inside the cage. As lethal as his striking game is, his finishing abilities don‘t match. He’s willing to out strike his foes from the outside, battering his opponent, but never going in for the kill to finish the fight.


Nakamura is a solid mixed martial artist, but his striking game is nowhere near that if Larkin’s. Nakamura has 10 losses to his name, and 8 of those have come via decision. His last 5 losses have been by decision, and I don’t suspect that trend will end tonight. Nakamura is durable, and able to weather most storms. Combine Nakamura’s durability with Larkin’s less than stellar finishing abilities, and we have the makeup for a 3 round beating at the hands of Larkin, with the judges awarding a 30-27 decision win across the board.

2) Wantanabe/Joanne goes to Decision (-185) 3 units to win 1.62


We have two pretty low-level, big promotion, female fighters on our hands here. Both fighters are rather unproven, and we wouldn’t feel comfortable

backing either of these fighters straight up, as there really isn’t much tape on them, and their styles are still a mystery to many. One play we are very confident in is that this fight will go to a decision. Neither of these women have very good finishing abilities. Wantanabe brings an incredibly slow striking pace to this fight. She’s very cautious on the feet, and doesn’t commit to much in the way of risky striking exchanges, opting to pick her shots when the time is right. Joanne isn’t known as a finisher either. She’s got a solid striking game, but doesn’t possess knock out power that can end the fight with one punch. This one should play out with a lot of clinching against the cage, and a slow, cautious striking pace.

3) Fedor/Rampage <1.5 rnds (-130) 2.75 units to win 2.16


You can flip a coin on who will win this fight, although I am leaning towards Rampage being able to finish Fedor in the 1st. Mostly due to Rampage’s superior durability at this late stage in their careers. With Rampage coming in at more than 260 pounds for the first time in his career, we have no confidence in placing a bet on Rampage here, but we do like this fight to end rather quickly. Both have power. Both have weakened chins. Both have questionable cardio. All of this pushes us to have 2.75 units on this fight ending within the first round and a half.

PARLAYS


1) Page ITD + Yamaguchi ITD + Wantanabe/Joanne goes to Decision

2 units to win 3.72


2) Chandler + Page + Larkin + Yamaguchi + Fedor/Rampage <1.5 rnds

1 unit to win 2.56


Lets have some fun tonight and keep this heater rolling! Hopefully you’ve been able to turn a healthy profit by tailing us as of late. We put in dozens of hours of work for each fight card, and you can probably see that through our in-depth fight breakdowns, DraftKings Targets, and the healthy profit that we’ve turned over the last 2 months! Happy Holidays to all our members from the MMAFightIQ.com team!


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