Sunday Morning Wood: UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington



As you probably know, MMAFightIQ.com has been on an absolute heater as of late, profiting 19 units over the course of the 3 prior cards heading into UFC 245. We had profited 2 units on UFC FN 164 (9% ROI), 6.7 units on Bellator London (74% ROI), and 10.3 units on UFC FN 165 (47% ROI). If you asked us if we were surprised by these results we would say no, as the fruits of our labor were showing through. We typically put in over 30 hours per week handicapping these events, so we expect to pinpoint value within each card, and this is exactly what we have done over the past month.


We kept the heater lit Saturday night, as we profited another 7.4 units, producing a 36% ROI. This pushed our profits over the past 4 cards to 26.4 units! Hopefully you've read our content, realized we knew what we were talking about, and tailed us during this period, as Christmas has come early for MMAFIghtIQ.com and our members. We've opened up our premium content at no charge to the masses during this timeframe, and we have one even left in 2019 where anyone can access our premium content. Once 2020 rolls around we will have updated membership opportunities to continue this run into 2020 and beyond! If you have any questions on any of these membership packages, please don't hesitate to reach out to us at: Admin@MMAFightIQ.com or shoot us a PM on Twitter (@MMAFightIQ3).


We were also privileged enough to earn the 10th and final spot in the Neds #UltimateUFCTwitterComp, facing 9 other highly regarded MMA 'cappers in a multi-event betting battle. After UFC 245 we sit in 4th place, and well-positioned to vie for the inaugural title. Feel free to follow along each event through Neds Twitter account (@NedsAUS).


Christmas came early for us MMA fans, as the much anticipated UFC 245 event finally was upon us Saturday night! A stacked card of prospects, vets, and champions filled the card, with the headline bout being the middleweight clash between 185 pound champ, Kamaru Usman, and the Trump-supporting, brash, Colby Covington. The card didn't disappoint! We had 7 KO/TKO's, incredibly no submission victories, and 6 decisions (1 split, 5 unanimous). Save for a somewhat lackluster Amanda Nunes victory, the championship fights were on point!


Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski put on an incredible show in a highly competitive bout, exchanging strikes for 25 minutes at the highest of levels. If you read our fight breakdowns, then you knew that we were high on Volkanovski and his stylistic matchup with the 145 pound champ. We outlined that in order for Volkanovski to win as a +165 underdog, that he'd need to spending time in Holloway's preferred rangy striking distance, and get inside of those strikes in order to disrupt the champ's rhythm, land power shots, and then exit beyond Holloway's preferred distance. The Aussie executed a flawless gameplan, implementing this approach that we laid out to a "T". It was a beautiful thing to see, and Volkanovski's cardio held up just long enough to not let Holloway gain any momentum. We were thrilled that our analysis and hard work paid off on this fight, and we were able to profit 3.3 units.


We ended up breaking even on our Straight bets (2-2), as we missed with a small bet on Ben Saunders, although this was strictly a value play and we didn't necessarily have a ton of confidence in Saunders winning, but we were getting a ton of value in his +285 betting line. We also missed on our biggest Straight bet of the night, as Kai Kara-France lost a decision to Brandon Moreno. We hit on the aforementioned Volkanovski, and also on Punahele Soriano for a few units at +100.


Our Prop bets did very well, netting us 5.26 units with the following wins:

  • Nunes/De Randamie >2.5 rnds (+100) 3.5 units to win 3.5 units

  • Teymur/Hooper <1.5 rnds (+145) 2.25 units to win 3.26 units


We ended up missing on our Faber/Yan >2.5 rnds (-105) play for 1.5 units, although this one did get close to the midpoint of the 3rd round, so we weren't too far off on this one.


From a parlay perspective we had a solid night, going 1-1 and netting a profit of 2.31 units. We lost on our hailmary, 4 leg, 1 unit parlay, but our very confident 2.75 unit play of Yan/Neal/Nunes (+121) hit and we walked away in the black on our 2 parlay recommendations.


All-in-all it was a very good night! Looking back, we wish we didn't underestimate Brandon Moreno so much in his match against Kara-France, but it is what it is. We also wish we would have pulled the trigger on a Geoff Neal lean that we were on the fence about, as he looked great in his fight against Mike Perry.


We had a profitable night in DraftKings as well, although we missed backing Amanda Nunes, who had 124 points, and we didn't have enough shares of Kamaru Usman as well, who also smashed. We did have Usman & Nunes in our list of Fighters to Target, but we didn't invest heavily enough in them. We also missed with Kara-France, as we had a healthy ownership level of him. 2 of our dogs didn't come through for us, as Saunders lost and only put of 6 points, and Covington also lost, but he did throw up a very respectable 71.5 points in a 5th round TKO loss.


Our DK recommendations of Neal, Yan, Hooper, and Volkanovski all played well within our lineups, and allowed us to turn a small profit. There's in are to DK and how to make money over the long haul, and we recommend playing 80% Cash & 50/50 games, and 20% GPP's. It only takes one big GPP to put you far into the Black, but this is easier said than done. Try to play more single entry, or limited entry GPP's, as it's difficult to compete with someone submitting 150 lineups in a single contest.


We are fully engaged in handicapping this weekend's event in Busan, which starts at 2 AM EST here in the US, with the main card popping off at 5 AM. We'll have our Fight Breakdowns, betting plays, and DK recommendations up throughout the week, so keep an eye, get your bookies ready, and tell your friends, because this is the last week of FREE Premium Content, and the HEATER will continue to close out 2019!



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