UFC Fight Night 165: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik -- Sunday Morning Wood

This recap is coming a day late due being out of town with the family on a mini-vacation. I was able to sneak away and watch the fights, but had to put down the phone and the laptop for the last few days to wear my husband & father hat.


Anyway, on to the recap of UFC Fight Night 165 and how us and our members fared this weekend. We had put in a TON of work on this card, as we did have a 3 week layoff between events. This was great, and our hard work paid off in a big way! We ended up profiting 10.28 units on the 8 bets that we recommended. We went 2-0-1on our straight bets, 3-0 on our prop bets, and 2-0 on our parlays! We don't come across double digit unit profit nights very often, so we are extremely pumped with this result! We hope you tailed our plays and were able to capitalize as well. In the last 3 events we are 3-0 on cards, and are up almost 19 units!! Let's just say we are hitting our stride as a team, and feel very confident with our analytical focused approach.


The card didn't start off great, as the only bet that lost for us was the Muradov/Smith going to decision. This fight actually almost paid for us, as Muradov finished Smith with about a minute to go in the fight. It looked like it was going to go to a decision, but Muradov landed a super clean right hook to the chin that sent Smith's mouthpiece flying about 10 feet away, and he crumpled to the mat out cold. A beautiful, textbook KO for Muradov, but unfortunately we lost 2.25 units on this one. I don't think our analysis was off, as Smith did a good job of taking Muradov's power punches for 95% of the fight, but ended up gassing and his defense suffered, causing his hands to drop and him going to sleep.


Our other prop bet on the card was a unique on, as we ended up placing 3 different 1 unit bets on Billy Quarantillo to win within a specific timeframe: by decision (+200), in the 3rd round (+850), and in the 2nd round (+450). With this approach our worst case scenario was losing 3 units, and that would happen if Kilburn ended up winning, which we didn't think was likely to happen at all, and if Quarantillo ended the fight in the 1st round. Quarantillo poured it on in the 1st, dominating Kilburn on the mat with superior grappling and awesome ground N pound, and he was very close to ending the fight, but as we believed, Kilburn's toughness would carry him through the 1st round, and that's exactly what happened. Quarantillo ended up dominating Kilburn in the 2nd round, winning by stoppage, and in turn our 1 unit bet to end in the 2nd round ended up paying us 4.5 units. Back out the 2 units we had on the other 2 plays, and we profited 2.5 units on this series of 3 bets.



We had straight bets on Song Yadong, who's fight concluded in a draw due to a dumb illegal knee that he threw in the 1st round. If he doesn't throw that knee, then we end up profiting an additional 1.5 units, plus another 5 units that we would have collected on our 2 parlays that were reduced due to this draw decision. Unfortunate, but part of the game. We also had our biggest bet of the card (5 units) on Rob Font, and this ended up paying for us, as he outboxed Ricky Simon while on his way to a unanimous decision victory and our members profiting 3.7 units on our 5 unit bet. We also had a play on Jair Rozenstruik in the main event, and this one was heading towards a L for us until Jair landed a hailmary right hook that sent Overeem crashing to the canvas, and our members profiting another 2.5 units!


We also had a 2 unit play on Calvillo/Rodriguez to go to a decision at -170, and that one also hit for us, netting us a 1.18 unit profit. Our two parlays also paid, but not at the level we were expecting due to the Yadong draw, but they were still profitable nonetheless. Below is a recap of all of our bets from UFC Fight Night 165:

BET UNITS BET UNITS +/-

  1. Rob Font (-135) 5 +3.7

  2. Jair Rozenstruik (+100) 2.5 +2.5

  3. Song Yadong (-200) 3 push

  4. Billy Quarantillo (3 plays) 3 +2.5

  5. Calvillo/Rodriguez to Decision (-170) 2 +1.18

  6. Muradov/Smith to Decision (-125) 2.25 -2.25

  7. Yadong/Quarantillo parlay 2.5 +.81

  8. Yadong/Quarantillo/Solecki/Muradov 1.5 +1.7

TOTAL +10.28


We don't rest, and have already started doing our analysis for the big UFC 245 card coming up this weekend. We'll be releasing our Fight Breakdowns throughout the week, and will have our premium bets and DraftKings targets up by Friday, so make sure you keep an eye out and check back regularly. I'll be Tweeting as our content gets posted throughout the week.


We hop you all have enjoyed our content so far, and have benefited of the 19 units that we've profited over the past 3 events! As a reminder, all premium content is free through the end of the year, so tell your friends, and let's make it rain this weekend!


Cheers, Johnny



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