We are less than an hour away from #UFCMoscow, and it's a card that many casual fans found obscure from a betting/DK perspective. If you put in the prep work, then you should be more comfortable with how these fights will play out than you should have going into UFC 244 last weekend. Russian's litter the card, and a lot of them have a very similar style of fighting, just on different levels. There fighting styles make it more predictable as to how the fights should unfold, but this is MMA, and anything can happen with 4 oz gloves.
With that being said, we have a few heavy leans today (2 4 unit plays), and are on a few underdogs as well. From a DK perspective, our targeted fighter pool isn't as deep as we usually see, which means fewer lineups that we'll invest in. The dogs we like allow us to get pretty flexible with our lineup construction, which is nice, but one or two strikes could change all that in a heart beat.
One prop bet that we like is Volkov/Hardy over 1.5 rounds. Here's why: Volkov isn't a power puncher. Yes, he can hit hard, but he is more about volume, cardio, and pit-shotting you from the outside, and I suspect this will be even more pronounced today when he is locked in the cage with Greg Hardy, a man who doesn't have a big skill set, with his best weapon being his heavy handed KO punch. Volkov has been around the game long enough to know not to engage in the pocket with Hardy, so he'll look to keep this fight at a distance that makes it very difficult for Hardy to land that one KO punch. This will make for an unappealing fight from a fans perspective, but its the best Fight IQ that he can implement in this fight.
Hardy on the other hand has a plethora of 1st round stoppages in his early career, but if you saw his last fight you'd notice that he rolled out a much different fighting style than what we've seen from him in his previous fights. He was patient, disciplined, and picked his aggressive shots very careful. This could be the evolution of Greg Hardy, and it wouldn't surprise me as he is training with a very intelligent team and coaching staff at American Top Team. I suspect that we'll see a similar style from him today against Volkov, and when you combine these two fighting styles, it makes for a somewhat boring, MMA chess match that goes to a decision, or for us, at least goes past 2:30 of round 2.
The >1,5 round line is holding at -110, but it started at -130. Hop on it now, as it may get over +100 by fight time. Good luck, and may the MMA Betting Gods be on our side!