UFC FN 163 - Moscow
Khadis Ibragimov (-140) 3 units
(L) -3 units
An interesting matchup between 13 year UFC vet, Ed Herman, and Khadis Ibragimov, who’s only making his 2nd UFC appearance compared to Herman’s 23rd. Herman is 39, but has proven himself to be savvy enough to stick around the organization without possessing the most dangerous skillset known to man. Yes, Herman has KO power, and has been able to stop fighters that he suppose to have beaten, but he’s also been susceptible to being knocked out - especially in the later years of his career.
Ibragimov came out like gang-busters in his UFC debut back in August against Da Un Jung, but gassed himself out badly when he couldn’t put away his foe. He did take the fight on short notice, so that may have had something to do with his limited cardio, but he’s also taken this fight with Herman on short notice, so who knows. If Herman can whether the early storm, then he has a very good chance of dragging the Russian into deep waters and winning this one most likely by TKO. Herman’s an appealing play in DK due to his low ownership and high upside, but I just don’t feel comfortable gambling on his chin, which has definitely been degraded over the course of his career due to the wars he’s been in.
It’s a risky fight for Ibragimov, but I believe his youth, and power combined with Herman’s questionable chin will lead him to victory. I’ll have a small bet on Ibragimov, as this line has tightened up to a point where there is value. I also like Ibragimov’s high ceiling in GPP’s, so he’ll be in some of my lineups. I’ll most likely avoid him in Cash games though, as there is too much risk with him, and we’d rather find safer plays to roster, especially at his current salary.